July 24, 2017

How unemployment at graduation affects lawyer earnings over time

More factual analysis from McIntyre & Simkovic, forthcoming in Journal of Empirical Legal Studies:

We investigate whether economic conditions at labor market entry predict long-term differences in law graduate earnings. We find that unemployment levels at graduation continue to predict law earnings premiums within 4 years after graduation for earners at the high end and middle of the distribution. However, the relation fades as law graduates gain experience and the difference in lifetime earnings is moderate. This suggests that earnings figures from After the JD II and III -- which track law graduates who passed the bar exam in 2000 -- are likely generalizable to other law cohorts because these studies are outside the window when graduation conditions predict differences in subsequent earnings.

 

Outcomes data available prior to matriculation do not predict unemployment or starting salaries at graduation. Earnings premiums are not predicted by BLS projected job openings.

 

While changes in cohort size predict changes in the percent of law graduates practicing law, we find little evidence that changes in cohort size predict changes in earnings. This suggests that law graduates who switch to other occupations when law cohort sizes increase are not hurt financially by larger cohorts.

 

For medium to high earning graduates, successfully timing law school predicts a higher value of a law degree ex-post, but simulations show that no strategy for ex-ante timing is readily available.

 


July 24, 2017 in Legal Profession, Of Academic Interest | Permalink

July 18, 2017

June LSAT takers up nearly 20% last month compared to 2016

Is California’s bar examination minimum passing score anti-competitive? (Michael Simkovic)

Occupational licensing regimes can help markets function when those markets suffer from what Economist George Akerlof coined a “lemons” problem.  In a lemons market, it is too costly or difficult for consumers to distinguish goods or services of acceptable quality from those that are close to worthless or even harmful.  Licensing regimes can help solve this problem by assuring consumers of a minimal baseline level of quality.  Effectively, licensing removes the bottom of the market, increasing quality, consumer confidence, volume, and price.

But economists worry that licensing regimes could be abused.  For example, if members of a licensed occupation were to seize control of licensing, they might set unnecessarily high barriers to entry for their industry, above what is optimal for consumer protection.  This could create an artificial shortage, reduce competition, drive up prices and drive down quality of services.  Political leaders also worry that excessive state or local licensing regimes could deprive workers of valuable economic opportunities and reduce their geographic mobility.

The deans of almost all ABA approved California law schools have jointly expressed concerns that California’s minimum passing score (‘cut score’) on the nationally uniform, multiple choice, Multi-State Bar Exam bar examination is excessively high. 

These leaders of legal education note that California has a higher cut score than any state except Delaware, no justification has been provided for this unusually high cut score, and some parts of California may have a shortage of lawyers.  Moreover, although law graduates from California score better on the MBE than the national average, they are less likely to pass the bar exam because of California’s unusually high cut score.  The case for bringing California’s cut score into line with those of other leading legal jurisdictions such as New York has been most forcefully stated by UC-Hastings Dean David Faigman. 

Amid concerns about possible anti-trust lawsuits against the State Bar, the Supreme Court of California has agreed to supervise the state bar of California and may set a lower bar cut score.

High cut scores are not the only signs of possible anti-competitive protectionism in California. California is among the few states that, without exception, forces experienced attorneys licensed in other states to sit for reexamination prior to relicensing. The overwhelming majority of jurisdictions—including New York, Washington D.C., Illinois, Texas, and Massachusetts—permit experienced lawyers who are licensed in another state to obtain a license to practice law on motion, without the need for reexamination.  (Some impose additional requirements, such as graduation from an ABA-approved law school or reciprocity by the state of origin).

Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics[i] shows that California lawyers earn more, on average, than lawyers in any jurisdiction except Washington D.C. 


2016 BLS mean lawyer earnings by state

Top paying States for Lawyers:

State

Employment

Employment per thousand jobs

Location quotient[ii]

Hourly mean wage

Annual mean wage 

District of Columbia

31,470

44.81

10.16

$87.89

$182,810

California

76,840

4.81

1.09

$77.89

$162,010

New York

72,760

8.00

1.81

$77.53

$161,260

Massachusetts

17,440

5.04

1.14

$76.33

$158,760

Delaware

2,590

5.87

1.33

$75.77

$157,610

While this may be great for lawyers, it is not necessarily an unmitigated good.  It means that legal services likely cost clients more and may be less widely available. 

Continue reading


July 18, 2017 in Guest Blogger: Michael Simkovic, Legal Profession, Of Academic Interest | Permalink

July 17, 2017

Some corrected data on trends in law school applications and LSAT scores

Here.  The problem is that the Blog Emperor relies too often on unreliable sources like "Law School Transparency" and the hopeless Matt Leichter.


July 17, 2017 in Legal Profession, Of Academic Interest | Permalink

July 05, 2017

Wall Street Journal trims legal coverage (Michael Simkovic)

The Wall Street Journal closed several of its blogs on Monday, including its Law Blog.  The WSJ has maintained its blogs with broader readership, such as those about economics and personal finance.  


July 5, 2017 in Guest Blogger: Michael Simkovic, Legal Profession, Of Academic Interest, Weblogs | Permalink

A law professor's advice for Jeff Bezos

June 23, 2017

Least educated county on Oregon's Pacific Coast shuts its last public library rather than increase taxes by $6 per month per household (Michael Simkovic)

Douglas County in rural Oregon recently shut its last public library rather than increase property taxes by around $6 per month per household.  Less than 16 percent of the population of Douglas County has a bachelor's degree or above, making it the third least educated county on the Pacific Coast of the United States and the least educated coastal county in Oregon. 

 

Across the Pacific, cities like Singapore, Hong Kong and Shanghai have built globally competitive workforces by investing heavily in education and infrastructure and embracing global trade.  In the United States, excessive anti-tax movements have contributed to disinvestment and have slowed U.S. economic growth.

 

Update:  Michelle Anderson (Stanford) and David Schleicher (Yale) debate policy responses to local economic decline and migration of educated populations away from depressed areas.  Hat tip Paul Diller. (Willamette).

 


June 23, 2017 in Guest Blogger: Michael Simkovic, Of Academic Interest, Science, Web/Tech, Weblogs | Permalink

June 21, 2017

House Democrats propose bill to reduce debt burden for graduate students (Michael Simkovic)

Representative Judy Chu (D-CA) (Pasadena) recently introduced H.R. 2526, the Protecting Our Students by Terminating Graduate Rates that Add to Debt (POST GRAD) Act. The bill would restore the in-school interest subsidy for graduate and professional students who borrow federal Direct Stafford Loans.  

Federal in-school subsidies were terminated by The Budget Control Act in 2011, which ended the debt ceiling crisis of 2011.  During the debt ceiling crisis of 2011, Congressional Republicans successfully maneuvered for large cuts to federal spending (other than military spending and pension and health benefits for retirees) by threatening to force the federal government to default on its sovereign debt unless then President Obama agreed to large spending cuts.

The POST GRAD Act would reduce the disparity between funding policy for graduate education and undergraduate education by reinstating graduate students’ eligibility for federal subsidized student loans, although graduate student borrowers, who have lower default rates, would continue to pay a higher interest rate after they complete their studies.

Christopher P. Chapman, CEO of the AccessLex Institute, estimated that the bill would save the typical law student $4,000 if passed.  

If the interest rate subsidy encourages more investment in graduate education, it could more than pay for itself with higher future tax revenue.

 

UPDATE:  The New America Foundation, which has close ties to the private student loan industry, has condemned proposals to reduce federal student loan interest rates.   NAF claims that the immediate benefits of higher education financing only benefit a "small majority" of households and therefore are bad policy.  New America argues that an increased military presence in Syria, Iraq and surrounding countries would be a better use of taxpayer dollars.

 

UPDATE 2, 6/30/2017: The New York Law Journal covers efforts to reduce student loan interest rates for graduate students.


June 21, 2017 in Guest Blogger: Michael Simkovic, Of Academic Interest, Science | Permalink

June 12, 2017

Applicants down half of one percent in 2016-17 cycle...

...while the drop in high-end LSAT scores is steeper.

I'll be on a reduced blogging schedule for the summer (look for one or two items per week), but will update the lateral moves list periodically as well as start the new one in August.  (Mike Simkovic, who has posting privileges here as well, may be posting as well in the summer.)

Thanks for reading, and I wish everyone a productive and pleasant summer.


June 12, 2017 in Legal Profession, Of Academic Interest, Rankings | Permalink

May 17, 2017

UC Irvine's founding Dean Erwin Chemerinsky to become new Dean at Berkeley

Here's a nice reflection on his accomplishments at Irvine from his colleague Rick Hasen.  And here's the announcement from Berkeley's Interim Provost:

I am very pleased to announce that Erwin Chemerinsky, current and founding Dean of the UC Irvine School of Law, has been appointed to be the next Dean of the UC Berkeley School of Law. He will begin his five-year term on July 1st.

 

One of the nation’s foremost scholars of constitutional law and federal civil procedure, Dean Chemerinsky is also a skilled administrator who, in less than a decade, built UCI Law from its founding into an institution whose faculty rank among the top in the country in scholarly impact, and whose student body admissions qualifications are comparable with the nation’s best law schools. Over the course of nine years, Dean Chemerinsky has been a central figure in the creation of UCI Law’s experiential learning-focused teaching philosophy, as well as in its highly successful faculty recruitment, curriculum development, fundraising, and strategic planning efforts.

 

As a professor and legal scholar, Dean Chemerinsky prizes public service and embodies the role of a public intellectual. He is the author of ten books and more than 200 law review articles, a weekly column for the Orange County Register, monthly columns for the ABA Journal and the Daily Journal, and regular op-eds in newspapers across the country. He frequently argues appellate cases, including in the United States Supreme Court. Dean Chemerinsky’s support for public service at UCI Law has placed the institution among the very top law schools in terms of number of federal clerkships, graduates in government and public interest jobs, and community service contribution. In January 2017, National Jurist magazine named him the most influential person in legal education in the United States.

 

Dean Chemerinsky graduated from Northwestern University in 1975, and received his law degree from Harvard Law School in 1978. Prior to assuming his deanship at Irvine, he was a professor at Duke Law School and the University of Southern California Law School.

 

Dean Chemerinsky’s appointment comes at the end of a thorough search process, and I would like to extend my thanks to search committee chair Dean Henry Brady, the entire search committee, and everyone in the extended Berkeley Law community who provided feedback on the next dean. I would like to also extend particular thanks to Berkeley Law Interim Dean Melissa Murray, who took the reins at a difficult time and has provided steadfast leadership over the course of the past year.

 

Dean Chemerinsky is an acclaimed researcher, gifted teacher, and accomplished administrator, and I believe he will be a phenomenal leader for our law school, someone who will ensure that Berkeley Law remains not only a powerhouse of legal scholarship and training, but also a community built on mutual respect and inclusion.

 

Please join me in welcoming Erwin Chemerinsky to our campus.

 

Sincerely,

Carol Christ

 

Congratulations to Berkeley on a major catch for their Deanship!

UPDATE:  Berkeley's news release about the appointment.


May 17, 2017 in Faculty News, Of Academic Interest | Permalink